Transmission line typhoon fault scenario construction method considering dynamic failure probability

To address the difficulty of existing fault scenario construction methods in simultaneously reflecting the stochasticity of typhoon trajectories and the dynamic variation of failure risk， a transmission line typhoon fault scenario construction method considering dynamic failure probability was proposed. The spatial distribution characteristics of typhoon wind speed were described using the Batts wind field model， and a joint probability model of typhoon deviation angle and moving speed was established through kernel density estimation and Copula functions， by which stochastic typhoon trajectories were generated. A dynamic failure probability model for transmission lines was then developed by considering the temporal evolution of wind speed， and cumulative failure probability was used to characterize the evolution of transmission line failure risk under the continuous influence of typhoons. Furthermore， the multi-order fault scenarios with temporal correlation characteristics were generated through state sampling and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method was validated on a practical 118-bus system. The results showed that the proposed method could effectively capture the variation of transmission line failure probabilities during typhoon evolution and generate fault scenarios consistent with the impact characteristics of typhoon disasters， thereby providing scenario support for power system risk assessment and resilience analysis under extreme weather conditions.