Spatiotemporal patterns of lagged vegetation responses to climate variability across China from 1982 to 2023

Based on annual NDVI data from 1982 to 2023， the trend analysis， partial correlation analysis， and the geographical detector were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and to explore the lagged response characteristics of vegetation to climatic factors across different regions. The results indicated that： 1） Since 1982， the vegetation NDVI in China had generally exhibited an increasing trend， with a more pronounced rise after 2000， reflecting the gradual effectiveness of ecological restoration initiatives. However， a short-term decline occurred in some regions during the late 20th century， particularly in Northeast and North China， where the vegetation dynamics were influenced by both natural degradation and human disturbances； 2） NDVI responses to precipitation generally exhibited a lag of 1~3 months， while the responses to temperature typically occurred after 1~2 months. The lag effects showed the considerable heterogeneity among different climatic zones and vegetation types； 3） The dominant driving factors varied across regions. Climatic variables， particularly precipitation and accumulated temperature， played a leading role in Northwest and Southwest China， whereas land-use change and human activities exerted the stronger influences in East， Central-South， and North China. In some regions， the interaction between temperature and precipitation also produced synergistic effects on NDVI variability. These findings could provide an important scientific support for ecological management and sustainable development by improving the understanding of vegetation-climate interactions and their lagged response mechanisms.