English
贾春生. 运用马尔可夫链预测马尾松毛虫发生面积[J]. 信阳师范学院学报(自然科学版), 2007, 20(1): 43-44.
引用本文: 贾春生. 运用马尔可夫链预测马尾松毛虫发生面积[J]. 信阳师范学院学报(自然科学版), 2007, 20(1): 43-44.
shu
JIA Chun-sheng. Apply of Markov Chains to Predict Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus punctatus[J]. Journal of Xinyang Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2007, 20(1): 43-44.
Citation: JIA Chun-sheng. Apply of Markov Chains to Predict Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus punctatus[J]. Journal of Xinyang Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2007, 20(1): 43-44.
shu

运用马尔可夫链预测马尾松毛虫发生面积

Apply of Markov Chains to Predict Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus punctatus

    摘要
  • 摘要: 根据广东封开1975-2002年马尾松毛虫发生程度的历史资料,应用马尔可夫链方法对2003-2005年的马尾松毛虫发生程度进行预测,对1990-2002年的发生程度进行回测,历史符合率为92.31%.

     

    Abstract: Based on the database of Dendrolimus punctatus from 1975 to 2002 in Fengkai of Guangdong Province,the occurrence degree of Dendrolimus punctatus in 2003-2005 was forecasted by means of Markov chain.The simulation forecast accuracy of 1990-2002 was 92.31%.

     

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