环境空气质量预报准确率研究

Researches on the Accuracy Rate of Ambient Air Quality Forecast

摘要: 在分析多年空气自动监测数据的基础上,选用统计预报模式(多元线性回归)和数值预报模式(CAPPS)两种模式同步应用,以源解析结论为数据修正程序,很好地解决了安阳市在空气质量预报方面准确率低的问题.安阳市2005年1月~9月环境空气质量预报PM10浓度预报准确率为74.70%.

Abstract: On the basis of analyzing air automatic monitor data of many years,the statistical forecast pattern(many Yuan linear return) and the numerical forecasting pattern(CAPPS) were applied in the ambient forecast.The air quality forecast aspect rate of accuracy was promoted in Anyangby.The PM_(10) density forecast rate of accuracy is 74.70% from January to September in 2005.