运用马尔可夫链预测马尾松毛虫发生面积

Apply of Markov Chains to Predict Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus punctatus

摘要: 根据广东封开1975-2002年马尾松毛虫发生程度的历史资料,应用马尔可夫链方法对2003-2005年的马尾松毛虫发生程度进行预测,对1990-2002年的发生程度进行回测,历史符合率为92.31%.

Abstract: Based on the database of Dendrolimus punctatus from 1975 to 2002 in Fengkai of Guangdong Province,the occurrence degree of Dendrolimus punctatus in 2003-2005 was forecasted by means of Markov chain.The simulation forecast accuracy of 1990-2002 was 92.31%.