基于灰色模型的旅游地客源预测——以信阳南湾风景区为例

Forecast on passenger source of tourism area based on grey model—— A case study of Nanwan scenic spo

摘要: 旅游地客源数据对于判断一特定的旅游地在其“生命周期”中所处的阶段具有重要的指示意义,传统的线性预测方法不适用于处于稳定发展期的旅游地的客源预测.旅游地客源市场除了受自身条件的限制,还受众多外部影响因素的控制,很难用确定的数学模型对这些因素进行精确的定量评估.灰色系统理论将旅游地的发展变迁当作一个灰色系统,用灰色模型去发掘、认识其原始时间数据序列中所蕴涵的内在规律,从而预测旅游地客源市场的发展走势.通过对信阳南湾风景区客源市场进行实证分析,可以看出灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度,预测方法和结果对其他旅游地的客源市场预测具有一定的借鉴和参考价值.

Abstract: Data of tourism passenger source indicate the developmental stage of life cycle for tourism area. The linear model is widely used in passenger source in tourism area, but it is not applicable in tourism area belonging to the period of consolidating and developing. For the complexity of contributing factor, it is difficult to simulation the evaluation of the tourism market by using mathematical analysis. Grey system theory regards the tourism area as a grey system and uses Grey model to explore, understand a...