面向风电功率预测的多尺度自适应图卷积方法

Multi-scale adaptive graph convolutional method for wind power forecasting

  • 摘要: 风电功率预测面临风况不可预测性与随机性的双重挑战。现有基于图神经网络的预测模型通常仅从单一角度构建图结构,难以全面准确地刻画风电场间复杂的空间相关性。针对该问题,提出Dual-MSGNN模型,通过融合频域分析与自适应图卷积,捕获多时间尺度和空间尺度下风电序列的动态相关性。该方法从时间和空间两个维度构建图结构:一方面将时间序列分解为不同尺度,并引入自注意力机制提取序列内的时间依赖关系;另一方面采用自适应图卷积层,自动学习各时间尺度下序列间的空间相关模式。在真实风电数据集上的实验结果表明,Dual-MSGNN模型在预测精度和鲁棒性方面均具有显著优势,验证了其有效性。

     

    Abstract: Wind power forecasting faced the dual challenges of unpredictability and randomness in wind conditions. Existing forecasting models based on graph neural networks were usually constructed from only a single perspective to build graph structures, which made it difficult to comprehensively and accurately characterize the complex spatial correlations among wind farms. To address this issue, a Dual-MSGNN model was proposed, which integrated frequency domain analysis and adaptive graph convolution to capture the dynamic correlations of wind power series across multiple temporal and spatial scales. In this method, graph structures were constructed from both temporal and spatial dimensions: on the one hand, the time series were decomposed into different scales, and a self-attention mechanism was introduced to extract intra‑sequence temporal dependencies; on the other hand, an adaptive graph convolution layer was adopted to automatically learn inter‑sequence spatial correlation patterns under each time scale. Experimental results on real‑world wind power datasets demonstrated that the Dual‑MSGNN model achieved significant advantages in prediction accuracy and robustness, thus validating its effectiveness.

     

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