考虑动态故障概率的输电线路台风故障场景构建方法

Transmission line typhoon fault scenario construction method considering dynamic failure probability

  • 摘要: 针对现有故障场景建模难以同时反映台风轨迹随机性和故障风险动态变化的问题,提出一种考虑动态故障概率的输电线路台风故障场景构建方法。首先,采用Batts风场模型描述台风风速的空间分布特征,并结合核密度估计与Copula函数建立台风偏移角和移动速度的联合概率模型,实现台风路径的随机生成;其次,构建考虑风速时序演化特性的输电线路动态故障概率模型,利用累积故障概率表征台风持续作用下线路故障风险的演变过程;最后,结合状态抽样与Monte Carlo模拟生成具有时序关联特征的多阶故障场景集。以某实际118节点系统为算例进行验证,仿真结果表明,所提方法能够有效反映输电线路故障概率随台风演化的变化规律,并生成符合台风灾害影响特征的故障场景,可为极端天气条件下电网风险评估与韧性分析提供场景支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the difficulty of existing fault scenario construction methods in simultaneously reflecting the stochasticity of typhoon trajectories and the dynamic variation of failure risk, a transmission line typhoon fault scenario construction method considering dynamic failure probability was proposed. The spatial distribution characteristics of typhoon wind speed were described using the Batts wind field model, and a joint probability model of typhoon deviation angle and moving speed was established through kernel density estimation and Copula functions, by which stochastic typhoon trajectories were generated. A dynamic failure probability model for transmission lines was then developed by considering the temporal evolution of wind speed, and cumulative failure probability was used to characterize the evolution of transmission line failure risk under the continuous influence of typhoons. Furthermore, the multi-order fault scenarios with temporal correlation characteristics were generated through state sampling and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method was validated on a practical 118-bus system. The results showed that the proposed method could effectively capture the variation of transmission line failure probabilities during typhoon evolution and generate fault scenarios consistent with the impact characteristics of typhoon disasters, thereby providing scenario support for power system risk assessment and resilience analysis under extreme weather conditions.

     

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