计及尾部风险的分布式光伏承载能力评估源荷联合场景生成方法

A source‑load joint scenario generation method for distributed photovoltaic hosting capacity assessment considering tail risk

  • 摘要: 分布式光伏高比例接入使配电网源荷时序特性更加复杂,光伏出力与负荷需求的不匹配以及极端运行场景的存在,给分布式光伏承载能力(Photovoltaic Hosting Capacity, PVHC)评估带来了挑战,而构建典型场景是提高评估效率与准确性的重要手段。因此,提出了一种计及尾部风险的源荷联合PCA-K-means聚类场景生成方法。首先,建立综合考虑光伏出力、负荷及净负荷特性的源荷联合特征模型,并通过主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)对高维源荷特征进行降维;其次,基于条件风险价值(Conditional Value at Risk, CVaR)计算源荷样本的尾部风险权重,并在K-means聚类过程中提高高光伏、低负荷等低频高风险样本的权重,在保证场景代表性的同时降低计算规模;随后,根据典型场景构建考虑潮流约束、节点电压和反向潮流约束的PVHC评估模型;最后,以IEEE 33节点配电系统为例,与源荷独立K-means聚类方法和不考虑尾部风险的源荷联合PCA-K-means聚类方法进行对比,验证了所提模型和方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: High penetration of distributed photovoltaic generation increases the complexity of source‑load temporal characteristics in distribution networks. The mismatch between photovoltaic output and load demand, together with extreme operating scenarios, poses challenges to distributed photovoltaic hosting capacity (PVHC) assessment. To address this issue, a source‑load joint PCA‑K‑means clustering scenario generation method was proposed considering tail risk. First, a source‑load joint feature model integrating photovoltaic output, load, and net load was established, and principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional source‑load conditions. Second, conditional value at risk (CVaR) was used to calculate the tail-risk weights of source‑load samples, and the weights of low-frequency high-risk samples, such as high-photovoltaic and low-load conditions, were increased during K-means clustering, thereby reducing the computational scale while maintaining scenario representativeness. Then, a PVHC assessment model considering power-flow constraints, node-voltage limits, and reverse-power-flow constraints was developed based on the typical scenarios. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus distribution system compare the proposed method with source‑load independent K‑means clustering and source‑load joint PCA‑K‑means clustering without tail-risk consideration, demonstrating its effectiveness.

     

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