1982—2023年中国不同植被NDVI对气候响应的滞后性差异分析
Spatiotemporal patterns of lagged vegetation responses to climate variability across China from 1982 to 2023
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摘要: 基于1982—2023年时序NDVI年数据,运用趋势分析、偏相关分析与地理探测器等方法,揭示了不同植被时空变化特征及其对气候响应的滞后性差异。主要结论如下:1)1982年以来全国植被NDVI总体处于上升状态,尤其在2000年以后提升明显,表现出生态恢复成效逐步显现的特征;而20世纪末期部分区域出现短期下降,其中东北、华北等地区受自然退化与人类干预双重影响较为突出;2)NDVI对降水的响应普遍滞后1~3个月,对气温的响应则出现在1~2个月后,滞后效应在不同气候带与植被类型中表现出较强的异质性;3)西北和西南以气候变量(降水、积温)为主导;华东、中南、华北则更多受土地利用变化和人为活动影响;在部分地区,气温与降水的交互效应也对NDVI波动起到了协同作用。研究成果为未来生态环境管理和可持续发展提供了有力的支持和理论依据。Abstract: Based on annual NDVI data from 1982 to 2023, the trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and the geographical detector were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and to explore the lagged response characteristics of vegetation to climatic factors across different regions. The results indicated that: 1) Since 1982, the vegetation NDVI in China had generally exhibited an increasing trend, with a more pronounced rise after 2000, reflecting the gradual effectiveness of ecological restoration initiatives. However, a short-term decline occurred in some regions during the late 20th century, particularly in Northeast and North China, where the vegetation dynamics were influenced by both natural degradation and human disturbances; 2) NDVI responses to precipitation generally exhibited a lag of 1~3 months, while the responses to temperature typically occurred after 1~2 months. The lag effects showed the considerable heterogeneity among different climatic zones and vegetation types; 3) The dominant driving factors varied across regions. Climatic variables, particularly precipitation and accumulated temperature, played a leading role in Northwest and Southwest China, whereas land-use change and human activities exerted the stronger influences in East, Central-South, and North China. In some regions, the interaction between temperature and precipitation also produced synergistic effects on NDVI variability. These findings could provide an important scientific support for ecological management and sustainable development by improving the understanding of vegetation-climate interactions and their lagged response mechanisms.
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