黄河流域县域经济高质量发展驱动机制研究——基于随机森林模型
Research on the driving mechanism of county economic high quality development in the Yellow River Basin: Based on the Random Forest Model
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摘要: 县域经济高质量发展是落实黄河流域及国家战略高质量发展的重要支撑。构建县域经济高质量发展评价指标体系,采用熵权‑TOPSIS方法对黄河流域县域经济高质量发展水平进行定量分析,通过随机森林模型探讨其驱动机制。结果表明:(1)黄河流域县域经济高质量发展水平不断提升,其中高水平县域集中于山东与内蒙古,中等水平县域主要位于河南省,低水平县域则主要分布于甘肃与山西;(2)黄河流域县域经济高质量发展受政策、人口、经济、资源、自然、区位等要素驱动,驱动强度排序为:政策>人口>经济>资源>自然>区位;(3)黄河流域县域经济高质量发展水平对主导驱动因子的响应阈值存在差异,其中农民收入、工业发展、投资力度、财政支出、技术创新等因素表现出非线性正向影响,粮食保障则表现出非线性负向影响。为推动黄河流域县域经济高质量发展,提出科学制定经济调控政策、不断增加农民收入、加快工业转型升级、提升技术创新能力和加大农业奖补力度等建议。Abstract: The high quality development of county economies serves as a crucial foundation for implementing national strategies, including advancing high quality development in the Yellow River Basin. An evaluation index system for the high quality development of county level economy was constructed and the entropy weight⁃TOPSIS method was adopted to conduct quantitative analysis and evaluation on the level of high quality development of county level economy in the Yellow River Basin, and a Random Forest Model was used to explore its driving mechanism. The findings revealed that: (1) The level of high quality development of county level economy in the Yellow River Basin was continuously improved. Among them, counties with a high development level were concentrated in Shandong and Inner Mongolia; counties with a medium development level were mainly located in Henan Province; and counties with a low development level were mainly distributed in Gansu and Shanxi in Gansu and Shanxi Provinces;(2)The high quality development of county level economy in the Yellow River Basin was driven by factors such as policy, population, economy, resources, nature and location, and the order of driving intensity was: policy > population > economy > resources > nature > location; (3)There were differences in the response thresholds of the high quality development level of county‑level economy in the Yellow River Basin to the leading driving factors. Among these factors, farmers income, industrial development, investment intensity, fiscal expenditure and technological innovation exhibited non‑linear positive impacts, while food security showed a non‑linear negative impact. To promote the high quality development of county level economy in the Yellow River Basin, suggestions were put forward, including formulating scientific economic regulation policies, continuously increasing farmers income, accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading, enhancing technological innovation capabilities, and increasing agricultural awards and subsidies.
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