1971—2022年秦岭南北气温时空比较及气候分界变化
Spatio-temporal comparison of temperature and climatic boundary changes between the northern and southern Mts. Qinling from 1971 to 2022
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摘要: 以秦岭南北两侧各6个气象站为研究对象,基于1971—2022年逐日平均气温、最高气温及最低气温数据,采用趋势分析法与中值波动法,系统表征了该区域气温变化趋势及波动特征,主要结论如下:(1)秦岭山地整体气温呈显著递增趋势,北麓增温速率相对较快,南麓较慢;(2)春季增温幅度最大,秋季最小;(3)研究期内,所有月份的气温变化倾向率均为正值,且大部分表现为北麓高于南麓;(4)低温是秦岭山地气温分界效应变化的最主要指标,春季则是对区域增温贡献率最高的季节。伴随着全球气候加速增温,秦岭作为南北分界线的气温分界作用已呈现减弱趋势;(5)相较于其他月份,秦岭区域1月增温更为突出,尤其是1998年之后增温趋势显著。叠加上北麓增温快而南麓增温慢的空间差异,秦岭或将从传统的中国最冷月的0 ℃等温线转变为1 ℃等温线的南北分界。Abstract: Six meteorological stations on both the northern and southern sides of the Mts. Qinling were selected as the research objects. Based on the daily average temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from 1971 to 2022, the trend analysis method and median fluctuation method were adopted to systematically characterize the temperature change trends and fluctuation characteristics of this region. The main conclusions were as follows:(1) The overall temperature in the Mts. Qinling showed a significant increasing trend; The temperature increase rate in the northern foot was relatively fast, while that in the southern foot was slower;(2) The temperature increase range was the largest in spring and the smallest in autumn;(3) During the research period, the temperature change tendency rate of all months was positive, and for most months, the rate in the northern foot was higher than that in the southern foot;(4) Low temperature was the most important indicator affecting the change of the Mts. Qinling temperature boundary effect, and spring was the season with the highest contribution rate to the regional temperature increase. With the accelerated global warming, the temperature boundary function of the Mts.Qinling as the north-south dividing line had shown a tendency of weakening;(5) Compared with other months, the temperature increase in the Qinling region in January was more prominent, especially after 1998, the temperature increase trend was significant. Combined with the spatial difference that the temperature increased faster in the northern foot and slower in the southern foot, the Mts.Qinling might change from the traditional north-south dividing line of China’s 0 ℃ isotherm in the coldest month to the dividing line of the 1 ℃ isotherm.
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