基于系统耦合模拟的土地利用变化及其区域生境质量变化分析

Response of regional habitat quality to predicted land use change based on system coupling simulation

  • 摘要: 从人文‑自然系统耦合视角出发,提出一种多情景土地利用变化过程模拟及其区域生境质量影响分析框架,并以湖北省为例,解析社会经济发展、气候变化与土地利用变化之间交互关系及其对生境质量的协同影响作用。结果表明,从2015—2050年,湖北省建设用地将显著增加,社会经济发展对土地利用变化的影响相比气候变化更为显著。预测2050年,湖北省生境质量将至少下降5%,且大多发生在湖北省中部、东部等生境质量较低区域。情景分析发现,经济发展、温度变化对生境质量的影响总体大于人口增长与降水变化的影响。其中,经济和人口的快速增长是土地利用变化的主要影响因素,对区域生境质量有显著的负向影响。气温升高将提升生境质量退化风险,而降水的适当增加则有助于生境质量提升。

     

    Abstract: A framework for simulating and analyzing the impact of mult⁃scenario land use changes on regional habitat quality from a human-natural system coupling perspective was constructed. Using Hubei province as a case study, the interaction between socio-economic development, climate change, land use change, and their combined effects on habitat quality were analyzed. The findings showed that, from 2015 to 2050, the construction land in Hubei province would increase significantly. The impact of socio-economic development on land use change was more substantial than that of climate change. It is predicted that, habitat quality in Hubei province would decline by at least 5% in 2050, mainly in central and eastern regions where habitat quality was low. The effects of economic development and temperature change on habitat quality were more pronounced than those of population growth and precipitation change. The rapid growth of the economy and population was the primary driver of land use change, which significantly and negatively affected regional habitat quality. Additionally, increasing temperatures would elevate the risk of habitat degradation, while moderate precipitation increase would contribute to the enhancement of habitat quality.

     

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