珍稀特有植物大别山五针松潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of the Rare and Endemic Plant Pinus Dabeshanensis

  • 摘要: 基于48条分布记录和6个环境变量, 用MaxEnt模型模拟大别山五针松从末次盛冰期到20世纪末的潜在分布区, 探讨影响大别山五针松适生分布区的主要气候因子, 并分析空间变换格局。结果表明: (1)MaxEnt模型预测精确度极高, 受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.998;(2)当前大别山五针松主要分布于中国安徽西南部及湖北东部的大别山区域, 潜在适生区的总面积约为83.28×104 km2, 不同等级潜在适生区高适生区面积为6.61×104 km2, 中适生区面积为20.88×104 km2, 低适生区面积为55.80×104 km2, 其中高适生区分布中心位于安徽合肥紫蓬山; (3)最暖季度降水量(bio18)、最冷月份最低温度(bio6)、等温性(bio3)是制约大别山五针松分布格局的主要气候因子; (4)预计大别山五针松高适生区的分布中心未来将向南迁移, 其地理分布范围可能会减少。根据对降水预估偏差的订正检验结果, 大别山地区未来最暖季的降水量将显著减少。因此, 最暖季降水量可能是导致大别山五针松濒危的重要原因之一。此外, 黄冈、安庆是大别山五针松的稳定适生区, 应进行优先保护, 以确保物种的生存和繁衍; 湖北恩施和湖南张家界为大别山五针松理想的人工林引种区。本研究结果可为未来制定保护措施和管理策略, 以及维护大别山五针松生态系统的完整性和稳定性提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on 48 distribution records and 6 environmental variables, the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential distribution range of the Dabie mountain P. dabeshanensis from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 20th century was applied to explore the environmental factors influencing its suitable distribution range and analyze the spatial transformation patterns. The results indicated that: (1) The MaxEnt model has extremely high predictive accuracy, with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.998. (2) Currently, P. dabeshanensis is mainly distributed in the Dabie mountain region of southwestern Anhui and eastern Hubei in China. The total area of potential suitable habitats is approximately 83.28×104 km2. The high, moderate and low suitability zones cover areas of approximately 6.61×104 km2, 20.88×104 km2 and 55.80×104 km2, respectively. The distribution center of the high suitability area is located at Zipeng mountain in Hefei, Anhui. (3) The main climatic factors restricting the distribution pattern of the Dabie mountain P. dabeshanensis are the precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), the lowest temperature of the coldest month (bio6) and isothermality (bio3). (4) It is predicted that the distribution center of the high suitability zone of P. dabeshanensis will shift southward in

     

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