近百年北京市日照时数变化特征及其未来趋势

Changes of Sunshine Duration in Beijing for the Recent 100 years and Future Trends

  • 摘要: 利用1923—2020年北京市及天津市逐月日照时数资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了近百年北京市日照时数变化特征及其未来趋势。结果表明:(1)1923—2020年北京市年日照时数以(-22.42±12.89) h/10a的速率呈显著减少趋势。季节上,夏、秋和冬季日照时数均呈显著减少趋势,而春季则呈不显著增加趋势;(2)1923—2020年北京市年日照时数存在56 a、36 a的准周期变化,并于2000年发生突变;(3)未来北京市年及四季日照时数变化均与过去保持一致,其中年、夏和秋季日照时数变化的持续性很强,而春季和冬季的持续性相对较弱。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly sunshine duration data of Beijing and its surrounding stations from 1923 to 2020, the changes of sunshine duration and its future trends in Beijing for the recent 100 years were analyzed by using mathematical statistics methods. The results show that: (1) From 1923 to 2020, the tendency rate of annual sunshine duration decreased significantly in Beijing, with the changing rate (-22.42±12.89) h/10a. Seasonal sunshine duration decreased significantly in summer, autumn and winter. However, the sunshine duration in spring showed an insignificant increasing trend. (2) Significant quasi-periodicity of 56 a and 36 a were detected in the annual sunshine duration of Beijing from 1923 to 2020, and the abrupt change occurred in 2000. (3) In the future, the annual and seasonal sunshine duration in Beijing will remain the same as that in the past. The continuous intensity of sunshine duration is very strong in annual, summer and autumn. However, the intensity in spring and winter are relatively weak.

     

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