一类具有时滞的急慢性丙型肝炎传染病模型的动力学分析

Dynamic Analysis of a Class of Acute and Chronic Hepatitis C Infectious Disease Model with Delay

  • 摘要: 依据丙型肝炎的传播特征, 建立了一类具有潜伏期时滞的传染病模型。计算了系统的控制再生数, 证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性。当时滞为零时, 利用Routh-Hurwitz判据证明了平衡点的局部渐近稳定性; 当时滞大于零时, 运用Lyapunov-Lasalle不变原理证明了无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的, 并证明了地方病平衡点的稳定性和Hopf分支的存在性。最后通过敏感性分析给出了疾病控制的策略。研究结果表明: 提高医疗服务质量和疾病筛查率可以有效地控制丙型肝炎的传播。

     

    Abstract: According to the transmission mechanism of Hepatitis C, an epidemic model with latency delay is formulated. The control reproduction number is calculated, and the existence of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are discussed. When the delay is zero, the stability of the equilibria are given by the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. Furthermore, when the delay is greater than zero, the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proved by the Lyapunov-LaSalle invariant principle. Then, the stability of the endemic equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained. Finally, the strategy of disease control is given through sensitivity analysis. The results show that improving the quality of medical services and disease screening rates can effectively control the spread of Hepatitis C.

     

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