人为排放对信阳市细颗粒物和臭氧的影响评估

Assessing the Influence of Anthropogenic Emissionsons on Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone in Xinyang

  • 摘要: 基于信阳市2017—2020年细颗粒物(PM2.5)和臭氧(O3)浓度数据及同期地面气象观测资料,利用Kolmogorov-Zurbenko(KZ)滤波法将原始浓度序列分解为短期分量、季节分量和长期分量,采用逐步回归方法建立污染物基线分量和短期分量与相应尺度气象要素的线性回归模型,通过对残差进行滤波和序列重建,得到去除气象影响的污染物长期变化趋势,该浓度仅与污染物的排放量有关。结果表明,PM2.5和O3浓度的波动主要由污染源排放及气象条件的短期变化和季节变化引起,气象条件对PM2.5季节分量和O3长期分量影响较大。信阳市PM2.5污染排放减弱,O3污染排放先升高,在2018年10月后降低。由于污染排放导致的2017—2020年PM2.5和O3长期分量分别降低3.5、1.5 μg/(m3·a)。

     

    Abstract: The surface meteorological data and mass concentration data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) from 2017 to 2020 in Xinyang are collected. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filtering method is employed to decompose the original concentration series into short-term, seasonal, and long-term components. Then the stepwise regressionis used to establish the linear regression model between pollutants baseline and short-term components and the corresponding scale meteorological elements. The residual differences between the baseline and short-term components are filtered and series reestablished. Finally, the long-term variations of PM2.5 and O3 without the influence of meteorology are obtained. These long-term variations are only related to the emission of pollutants. The results show that the fluctuations of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations are mainly caused by pollution emissions, and meteorological variations in short-term and seasonal change. Meteorological conditions have a great influence on the seasonal component of PM2.5 and the long-term component of O3. The emission of PM2.5 weakens, and the emission of O3 pollution increases first and then decreases from October, 2018, in Xinyang. The study also reveals that, from 2017 to 2020, due to emissions, the long-term components of PM2.5 and O3 decreases by 3.5 and 1.5 μg/(m3·a), respectively.

     

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