基于SEIADR模型研究口罩对COVID-19传播的影响

The Impact of Face Masks on COVID-19 Transmission Based on SEIADR Model

  • 摘要: 为了模拟COVID-19流行病的传播,将无症状感染者引入SEIDR模型中,提出了一个改进的SEIADR模型来分析戴口罩对COVID-19流行病最终规模和基本再生数的影响。为了研究口罩对新冠肺炎传播的影响,将人群分为两组:一组戴口罩(包括易感者、暴露者、有症状感染者、无症状感染者、死亡人群和康复人群);另一组不戴口罩(包括易感者、暴露者、有症状感染者、无症状感染者、死亡人群和康复人群)。运用分组动力学模型确定了流行病的基本再生数和控制再生数;从生物学意义对再生数进行了解释,并根据文献中的相关数据模拟了疾病的最终规模;最后通过数值分析模拟了戴口罩对流行病传播过程中的动态影响。数据模拟表明,如果所有人不戴口罩,那么控制再生数为1.35;如果50%的人戴口罩,口罩的易感性和传染性降低50%,那么控制再生数会下降到0.39,而病例最终规模也将从73.20%降到16.15%。

     

    Abstract: In order to estimate the transmission of COVID-19, the asymptomatic class is introduced to the SEIDR model, an improved SEIADR model is proposed to analyze the influence of wearing face masks on the final size and the basic reproduction number of COVID-19.To study the impact of face masks on the transmission of COVID-19, the population is divided into two groups: one group wearing face masks (including susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic, dead and recovered), and the other not wearing face masks (including susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic, dead and recovered). The group dynamic model is used to determine the basic reproduction number and the control reproduction number of the epidemic. Then the final size of disease is simulated based on data. Finally, the dynamic influence of face masks on epidemic transmission is simulated by numerical analysis.Data simulations show that without any intervention, the basic reproduction number is 1.35. If 50% of population wear face masks, the susceptibility and infectivity are reduced by 50%, then the control reproduction number will decreased to 0.39, and the final epidemic size will reduce from 73.20% to 16.15%.

     

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