基于PSR模型的大别山区基本公共服务承载力及协调发展

Basic Public Service Carrying Capacity and Its Coordinated Development in Dabie Mountain Area Based on Pressure-State-Response Model

  • 摘要: 基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型, 运用指数变换规范化、均方差赋权法、灰色模糊物元评价、耦合协调度模型、时间序列预测和标准差椭圆模型, 对2003-2018年大别山区7个地市的基本公共服务承载力及其协调发展进行实证研究。结果表明: (1)大别山区基本公共服务协调度呈平稳增长的趋势; (2)各地市承载力协调度评价值在预测时段(2019-2023年)呈现增长趋势, 标准差椭圆模型呈现出"西北-东南"趋势、重心移动路径偏北; (3)大别山区基本公共服务承载力的研究有待深化, 后续研究应当从指标、时段和区域等方面进一步丰富和完善。

     

    Abstract: Based on the pressure-state-response model, by using normalization of exponential transformation, mean square deviation weighting method, grey fuzzy matter-element evaluation, coupling coordination degree model, time series prediction and standard deviation ellipse model, the basic public service carrying capacity and coordinated development of 7 cities in Dabie Mountain area from 2003 to 2018 are empirical researched. The results show that: (1) The coordination degree of basic public services in Dabie Mountain area shows a steady growth trend. (2) The evaluation value of carrying capacity coordination in various cities shows an increase trend in the prediction period (2019-2023). The standard deviation elliptic model shows a "northwest-southeast" trend, and the center of gravity moves to the north. (3) The research on the carrying capacity of basic public services in Dabie Mountain area needs to be deepened, and the follow-up research should be further enriched and improved from the aspects of indicators, time periods and regions.

     

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