近50 a长江中下游地区积雪日数时空变化及其气候指示意义
Study on Spatial-temporal Variations of Snow Cover Days and Its Indicating Climatic Significance in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River for the Past 50 Years
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摘要: 利用1961-2011年长江中下游地区27个气象站逐日积雪深度资料, 采用数理统计方法, 分析了全球变暖背景下长江中下游地区积雪日数时空变化特征, 并定量估算了积雪日数的气候指示意义。研究结果表明: (1)近50 a长江中下游地区年平均积雪日数为5.6 d, 1968年最高, 2006年最低; 空间上, 各站年平均积雪日数在0.9~11.3 d之间, 亳州积雪日数最多, 温州最少; (2)近50 a长江中下游地区积雪日数呈不显著减少趋势, 变化速率为-0.50±0.77 d/10 a; 东北地区积雪日数减少速率较快, 中部地区减小幅度不大, 西南地区甚至出现微弱增加趋势; (3)长江中下游地区积雪日数变化对冬季和次年1~3月平均气温具有较强的指示意义, 东南部和南部地区指示作用较强, 东北部和北部地区较弱。Abstract: Based on daily snow cover depth data and monthly mean temperature data obtained from 27 stations in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) during 1961-2011, the spatial-temporal variations of snow cover days in the MLRYR under the background of global warming were analyzed by using mathematical statistics methods, and the indicating climatic significance of snow cover days for each station was quantitatively evaluated. The results show that: (1) In the past 50 years, the average snow cover days for the MLRYR were 5.6 days, with the highest days observed in 1968 and the lowest detected in 2006, respectively; Spatially, the average annual snow cover days for each station in the MLRYR during the past 50 years ranged from 0.9 to 11.3 days, with the largest number observed in Bozhou and the smallest snow cover days occurring in Wenzhou. (2) The snow cover days in the MLRYR showed an insignificant decreasing trend during the past 50 years, of which the changing rate was -0.50±0.77 d/10 a. The largest decreasing trend of snow cover days were found in the northeastern part of the study area, while the rates in the central region were moderate. However, a weak increasing trend in southwestern region was detected. (3) The snow cover days in the MLRYR had a strong climatic indication to the average temperature of winter and the following January to March. The intensity of climatic indication was stronger in the southeastern and southern regions, and weaker in the northeastern and northern regions.