1961—2016年新疆极端气温事件变化特征

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Extreme Temperature Events in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2016

  • 摘要: 以1961-2016年新疆维吾尔自治区51个站点逐日最高、最低和均温数据为研究对象,采用线性倾向估计、R/S分析、空间分析和相关分析等方法,探讨新疆地区16个极端气温指数变化特征.结果显示:(1)新疆极端气温指数与年均温具有较好相关性,说明极端气温指数变化响应该区域气候变化.(2)无论在时间方面还是空间方面,新疆极端气温指数均呈暖化趋势.时间方面,TN90p、TN10p、FD0和GSL指数暖化趋势最显著.空间方面,十三间房、吐鲁番、巴里坤、哈密等地暖化趋势最显著.(3)冷(夜)指数暖化幅度大于暖(昼)指数,说明在响应全球变暖过程中,冷(夜)指数更加敏感.(4)新疆地区极端气温指数具有很强的可持续性,意味着未来暖化趋势将持续.(5)经度和海拔因素对新疆极端气温指数变化具有重要影响.

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature data of 51 stations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1961 to 2016, the spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang are studied. The methods include linear trend estimation, rescaled range analysis, spatial analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. The results are as follows: (1) there is a good correlation between extreme temperature and annual average temperature in Xinjiang. This indicates that the extreme temperature changes in the region can be used as an indicator of climate change; (2) the extreme temperature indices have a significant increasing trend from both spatial and temporal point; (3) among sixteen indices, the increasing trend of these indices (TN90p, TN10p, FD0 and GSL) is larger than that of the others during the last 56 years. The warming trend in these areas (Shisanjianfang, Turpan, Barkol and Hami) is the largest from spatial point. (3) the warming magnitude of the cold (nights) indices is larger than that of the warm (days) indices, which indicates that the cold (nights) indices are more sensitive to global warming; (4) the long-term persistence of the changes in the extreme temperature indices indicates that the warming trend will continue in the future; (5) the extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang are related more closely to longitude and elevation than to latitude.

     

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