公元前221年-公元2000年河南省气象灾害时空分布特征

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of the Meteorological Disasters in Henan Province from BC 221 to AD 2000

  • 摘要: 运用数理统计、ArcGIS空间分析等方法,系统地探讨了公元前221年至公元2000年河南省干旱、暴雨与洪涝、冰雹、低温与霜冻、病虫害等5种主要气象灾害的时空分布特征.结果表明:过去2000多年中河南省自然灾害频发,共发生1929次,不同灾害发生频率各不相同;其中干旱和暴雨与洪涝是河南省发生次数最多的气象灾害.公元1911年前,暴雨与洪涝是河南省发生次数最多的气象灾害,共617次,平均每3.4年发生1次;干旱灾害次之,共522次,而低温与霜冻发生次数最少,仅127次;这一时期,河南省气象灾害多发区主要集中在西北部和南部.公元1911年以来,干旱是河南省发生次数最多的气象灾害,共76次,其次为暴雨与洪涝,而病虫害发生次数最少,为45次;这一时期,河南省北部和东南部为气象灾害多发区.通过对不同时期气象灾害发生的空间分布趋势分析发现:公元1911年以来,干旱灾害的多发区发生了显著的转移,冰雹和低温与霜冻灾害只发生了少量转移,而病虫害和暴雨与洪涝灾害多发生并未发生改变.

     

    Abstract: By adopting mathematical statistics, ArcGIS spatial analysis method, and other methods, five major meteorological disasters were systematically explored such as drought, flood, hail, cold damage, plant diseases and insect pests in Henan province from BC 221 to AD 2000. The results showed that: major meteorological disasters occurred frequently during the past two millennia, with a total of 1929 times, and the frequency varies for different disasters. Among them, the most frequent disasters are drought and flood. Before AD1911, the floods were the most frequent meteorological disasters in Henan province, totally 617 times, with an average of 3.4 occurrences per year; followed by droughts, totally 522 times; the number of occurrences with frost was the least, only 127 times. And the frequency of major meteorological disasters was mainly distributed in the northwest and southern part of Henan province before AD1911. Since AD1911, the drought was the most frequent meteorological disaster in Henan province, totally 76 times, followed by floods; while the frost occurred only 45 times. And the northern and southeastern parts were the meteorological disaster-prone areas in Henan province during this period. Through the analysis of the spatial correlation of each meteorological disasters in different period, it is found that the drought disaster frequency-occurring district has transferred since AD1911, and the frequency-occurring district of hail and low temperature and frost disasters just have a smaller transferred. Conversely, the frequency-occurring district of flood and insect pest disasters have no obviously transferred in different periods.

     

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