上海市近145年气候变化对气候生产力的影响

The Effect of Climate Change on Climate Productivity at Shanghai for the Past 145 Years

  • 摘要: 利用上海市1873-2017年逐月平均最高、平均最低气温和月降水量资料,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型估算了上海市逐年气候生产潜力.在此基础上,利用Fisher最优分割、多元线性回归等数理统计方法分析了近145年上海市气候生产潜力的变化特征,并定量评估了气温和降水对上海市气候生产潜力的相对贡献率.结果表明:(1)过去145年上海市气候生产潜力以10.7±3.4 kg/(hm2·a)(p<0.05)的速率呈显著上升趋势.(2)气候生产潜力受到降水与气温的双重影响,1873-2017年上海市降水与气温对气候生产力的贡献率分别为64.6%和35.4%,降水对气候生产潜力的变化起主导作用.(3)气温和降水对气候生产力的贡献率受气候变化显著影响,气温每升高1℃,气温贡献率增加4.95%±0.93%;降水量每增加100 mm,降水贡献率减少4.66%±1.10%.

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly maximum, minimum temperature and monthly precipitation data at Shanghai in the period of 1873-2017, the climate productivity was calculated by using the Thornthwaite Memorial model. On this basis, the changing characteristics of climate productivity at Shanghai for the past 145 years were analyzed by using Fisher optimal segmentation, multiple linear regression and other mathematical statistical methods. The relative contribution rates of temperature and precipitation to climate productivity in Shanghai were quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that: (1) In the past 145 years, the climate productivity of Shanghai has increased significantly at the rate of 10.7±3.4 kg/(hm2·a). (2) Climate productivity was affected by both temperature and precipitation. The relative contribution rates of precipitation and temperature in Shanghai from 1873 to 2017 were 64.6% and 35.4%, among which precipitation was the main driving factor in the change of climate productivity. (3) The contribution of temperature and precipitation to climate productivity were significantly affected by climate change. The results showed that the contribution rate of temperature increased 4.95%±0.93% when the temperature increased by 1℃. However, the contribution rate of precipitation decreased 4.66%±1.10% when the precipitation increased by 100 mm.

     

/

返回文章
返回