长江经济带综合承载力时空分异特征及其影响因素研究

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Its Influencing Factors

  • 摘要: 综合承载力是衡量区域人口、资源环境与社会经济可持续发展的重要判据.以长江经济带为案例区,以2007-2017年为时间轴,构建基于"社会-经济-人口-资源-环境"复合系统的地域综合承载力评价体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型评估综合承载力及其时空格局,借助探索性数据分析及GWR模型分析综合承载力影响因素.研究表明:①2007-2017年,长江经济带综合承载力较低,但上升趋势显著.②长江经济带社会承载力水平"独占鳌头",经济承载力、环境承载力先后垫底.③长江经济带综合承载力总体呈现下游高于中游、中游高于上游的空间格局.④互联网覆盖率、人均可支配收入、城市化率、单位能耗实现的GDP、环境污染治理占GDP比重是影响综合承载力的主导因素.据此,提出提高长江经济带综合承载力对策建议.

     

    Abstract: The comprehensive carrying capacity is an important criterion to measure the sustainable development of regional population, resources, environment and social economy. With the examples of the Yangtze river economic belt area, from 2007 to 2017 as the time axis, build based on "social-economic-population-resources-environment" regional comprehensive bearing capacity of composite system evaluation system, using the entropy TOPSIS model to evaluate the bearing capacity of composite and its temporal and spatial pattern, with the analysis of exploratory data analysis and GWR model, comprehensive bearing capacity of influencing factors. The results show that: ① During 2007-2017, the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze river economic belt is low, but the upward trend is significant. ② The level of social carrying capacity of the Yangtze economic belt "tops", economic carrying capacity, environmental carrying capacity successively bottom. ③ The overall comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze economic belt shows a spatial pattern that the lower reaches are higher than the middle reaches and the middle reaches are higher than the upper reaches. ④ Internet coverage, per capita disposable income, urbanization rate, GDP per unit of energy consumption and the proportion of environmental pollution control in GDP are the leading factors influencing the comprehensive carrying capacity. Accordingly, the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze river economic belt are put forward. The results are in line with the reality of the basin and can provide theoretical reference and technical support for the sustainable development of the Yangtze river economic belt.

     

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