1951—2014年淮河流域典型等值线变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Classic Isolines in Huaihe River Basin during 1951-2014

  • 摘要: 利用1951-2014年淮河流域29个站点月平均气温和月降水量数据,运用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验及空间分析等方法,分析了1月均温和年降水量的时空变化特征.结果表明:过去64 a,1月均温呈显著升高趋势,升高速率为0.3℃/10a,1986年以后升温趋势显著,并于1973年发生升温突变;年代际方面,20世纪50年代均温最低,20世纪90年代均温最高.年降水量呈不显著减少趋势,减少速率为5.9 mm/10a;年代际降水量波动幅度不大,其中21世纪00年代平均降水量最高,21世纪10年代平均降水量最少.相较于淮河流域年均温变化,1月均温发生暖化突变时间早于年均温,说明1月均温在响应全球变暖方面更加敏感.过去64 a,1月0℃等温线和800 mm等降水量线与秦岭-淮河一线不重合,其主要原因是全球变暖导致的自然带显著北移.

     

    Abstract: Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 29 meteorological stations in Huaihe River Basin during 1951-2014,the spatial and temporal characteristics of January mean temperature and annual precipitation over Huaihe River Basin were studied by using linear regression,cumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall test and spatial analysis methods.The results showed that:the January mean temperature over Huaihe River Basin presented a significant warming trend during the past 64 years,and the linear rate was 0.3℃/10a.The strongest warming trend occurred since 1986,and the abruptly changed in the year 1973.At decadal time scale,the warmest decade was observed during 1990s and the coolest decade was detected during 1950s.The annual precipitation over Huaihe River Basin showed a moderate decreasing trend during the last 64 years,with the linear trend amounting to-5.9 mm/10a.The lowest and highest decadal precipitation occurred in 2010s and 2000s,respectively.Relative to variations of annual average temperature from Huaihe River Basin,the time abrupted warming of January mean temperature was earlier,indicating that which was more susceptible than annual average temperature in response to global warming.0℃ isotherm in January and 800 mm isohyets during last 64 years were located on the north side of the Huaihe River,which was not coincidence with Qinliang-Huaihe Line.The mainly reason was that natural belt remarkably northward moved because of global warming.

     

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