1961-2016年河南省极端气温事件变化特征

Spatial-temporal Variations of Extreme Temperature Events in Henan Province from 1961 to 2016

  • 摘要: 以1961-2016年河南省17个气象站逐日最高、最低和日平均气温数据为研究对象,运用Sen's倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、R/S分析和空间分析等方法,分析了河南省16个极端气温指数(冷指数和暖指数)的变化特征.结果表明:过去的56年,河南省极端气温冷指数和暖指数均呈暖化趋势.其中,霜冻日数、冷夜日数、暖夜日数和生物生长季暖化趋势最显著.空间上,河南省各地极端气温冷指数和暖指数均呈暖化趋势.其中,郑州、开封、新乡、三门峡等地暖化趋势最显著.极端冷指数开始变暖、显著变暖和变暖突变时间均早于暖指数,且冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,说明冷指数对全球变暖更敏感.河南省极端气温冷指数和暖指数可持续性均较强,意味着河南省极端气温指数暖化趋势将持续.

     

    Abstract: Using daily maximum, minimum and average temperature data from 17 meteorological stations in Henan province during 1961-2016, the spatial and temporal variations of sixteen extreme temperature indices (cooling and warm indices) were analyzed by using multiple methods, such as Sen's tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall test, R/S analysis and spatial analysis. The results showed that:in terms of temporal variations, extreme temperature indices over Henan province presented a warming trend during the last 56 years. The indices (e.g. frost days, cool nights, warm nights and growing season length) showed the most significant warming trend. In terms of spatial variations, each station also showed a warming trend. The warming trends of Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Xinxiang and Sanmenxia area were the most obvious. The initial warming, the significant warming and abrupt warming of cooling indices occurred earlier and to a greater magnitude. It suggested that the cooling indices were more sensible than warming indices in response to global warming. Extremes temperature indices over Henan province showed a strong persistence, indicating that the warming trend of extreme temperature indices would continue.

     

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