1870年以来河南省年平均气温变化特征

Characteristics of Annual Mean Temperature of Henan Province Since 1870

  • 摘要: 利用1951-2016年河南省17个气象站及1870-1950年中国东、中部地区14个站点建站以来的逐月平均气温资料,采用多元线性回归法重建了1870-2016年河南省逐年平均气温序列,并分析了其变化特征.结果表明:(1)过去147 a河南省气候经历了"冷-暖-冷-暖"的多年代波动.(2)1870年以来,河南省年均温最快30 a和50 a增暖速率发生于1900-1929年(0.046±0.018℃/a)和1883-1932年(0.031±0.008℃/a);最快30 a和50 a降温速率出现在1928-1957年(-0.043±0.024℃/a)和1923-1972年(-0.026±0.010℃/a).20世纪后期的变化速率均未超过以前水平.(3)1870-2016年河南省年平均气温的变化周期以2~4 a和64 a为主.前者变化可能受海气相互作用(如ENSO事件)及平流层准2 a震荡(QBO)驱动,后者可能受太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的影响.

     

    Abstract: Based on monthly temperature data obtained from 17 stations in the period of 1951-2016 in Henan and 14 stations in the period of 1870-1950 over central and eastern China, the annual mean temperature series of Henan province during the period of 1870-2016 were reconstructed by using multiple linear regression methods. The temporal characteristics were then analyzed by using moving linear regression and power spectrum analysis methods. The main conclusions were as follows:(1) the climate of Henan province showed a multi-decadal "cold-warm-cold-warm" pattern;(22) from 1870 onwards, the strongest warming trends at 30- and 50-year scale were observed during 1900-1929 and 1883-1932, with the linear trends amounting to (0.046±0.018)℃/a and (0.031±0.008)℃/a, respectively. The largest cooling trends for the same scales were detected for 1928-1957 and 1923-1972, with the linear trends being (-0.043±0.024)℃/a and (-0.026±0.010)℃/a, respectively. Changing rates for the late-20th century did not exceed the magnitude before; (3) during the period of 1870-2016, significant periodicity of 2~4 a and 64a were detected over Henan province. The former periodicity was probably driven by ENSO and QBO, while the latter may be influenced by PDO.

     

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