加入WTO以来江苏省经济增长驱动因素及增长协调性的时空结构分析

Spatial and Temporal Ttructure of Economic Growth Driving Factors and Growth Coordination in Jiangsu Since Join WTO

  • 摘要: 运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型分析了江苏省各县(市、区)投资、消费和出口这三大因素在2002-2015年间的年平均增长率与GDP年平均增长率间的关系.结果表明:在所有的县域消费都是居第一位的增长驱动因素,居第二位的驱动因素有45个县域是投资,16个县域是出口,各驱动因素回归系数的空间分布主要表现为明显的南北差异.又以各年固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额和出口额的增长率与同年GDP增长率的差值作为经济发展协调性指标,运用经验正交分解法(EOF)分析了自加入WTO以来江苏省各县域经济增长的协调性.所有指标经分解后的前三个分量方差贡献率都达到70%以上,第一分量的贡献率都达到50%以上,且绝大多数县域第一分量的值都为正值,表明绝大多数县(市、区)三大驱动因素的增长都快于经济的增长,对经济的拉动作用明显;第一分量都在2003-2005年期间出现极大值,表明加入WTO的初期对经济有一个较强的刺激作用,后期刺激作用逐渐减弱;第二、三分量所占比重不大,但表现出较为明显的南北差异,在时间上也有较为明显的节律性;分析结果还表明2008年的金融危机对江苏省经济增长的影响不大.

     

    Abstract: The impact of investment, consumption and export on economy of each county were analyzed by the method of GWR from 2002 to 2015 in Jiangsu province. The results showed that the first growth driving factor of all counties was consumption.The second driving factor of most counties was investment, and export ranks second only in few counties which most of them lies in the northeast of Jiangsu. The regression coefficients of each driving factor presented the difference between the south and the north. The difference of annual growth rate between fixed-asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods and export and GDP were used to analyze the growth coordination of each county in Jiangsu province from joining WTO by the method of EOF. The variance contribution of previous three components of all difference indexes reached more than 70%,and the variance contribution of first components exceeded 50%. The values of most counties in first components were positive values, indicating that the growth of all three driving factors were faster than the growth of GDP. The maximum normalized time coefficients of first components appeared in 2003-2005 showed that the stimulation of preliminary stage after joining WTO was stronger than the later period. The variance contribution proportion of second and third components was small, the values of all counties represent the spatial difference between the south and the north, normalized time coefficients of second and third components had remarkable periodicity. The results also indicated that the financial crisis in 2008 had little impact on economic development of Jiangsu.

     

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