1951—2014年淮河流域气温时空变化特征

Characteristic of Spatial and Temporal Variation of Average Temperature in Huaihe River Basin During 1951-2014

  • 摘要: 以1951—2014年淮河流域29个站点月均温为研究对象,运用Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、距平、累积距平及空间分析等方法,分析均温时间和空间变化特征.结果表明:(1)1951—2014年,年和四季均温具有升高趋势,年、春、秋和冬季升温趋势较显著,夏季升温趋势不显著,响应了全球变暖大背景.(2)20世纪90年代中期,年、春和秋季均温发生暖化突变,20世纪80年代中期冬季均温发生暖化突变,1960年夏季均温发生降温突变.(3)空间上,流域内自南向北年均温逐渐降低,且各地具有暖化趋势.(4)受海洋影响,山东省和江苏省东部(沿海地区)春季和夏季均温低于流域内同纬度内陆地区,秋季和冬季均温高于流域内同纬度内陆地区.(5)山东省东部和江苏省年均温升高与年降水量显著减少有关,郑州和开封等地区年和四季均温升高与人类活动有关.

     

    Abstract: Monthly average temperature at 29 meteorological stations in Huaihe River Basin during 1951-2014 was selected as subject. Multiple methods, including Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, anomaly analysis, cumulative anomaly analysis and spatial analysis, were applied to detect the characteristic of average temperature variation from temporal and spatial aspect. The results showed that (1) annual and seasonal average temperature had an increasing trend, and the annual and most seasonal series increased significantly except summer with slightly increasing. The changing temperature in the study region responded to global warming. (2) There was a sudden increasing change of spring and autumn temperature in 1990s as well as of winter temperature in 1980s, and a sudden decreasing change in 1960 is also detected for summer average temperature. (3) There was a decreasing trend of annual average temperature from south to north in Huaihe River Basin, and annual average temperature of entire basin has increased. (4) Spring and summer average temperature in the eastern Shandong and Jiangsu provinces (coastal region) was lower than that in the inland of the same latitude in Huaihe River Basin, and autumn and winter average temperature was higher due to the influence of ocean. (5) Annual and seasonal average temperature of the eastern Shandong and Jiangsu provinces increased remarkably, which was connected with decreasing annual precipitation. In Zhengzhou and Kaifeng areas, annual average temperature had increased, which was probably related to local human activities.

     

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