1951—2015年信阳极端温度事件变化及其对全球变暖的响应

Study on Extreme Temperature Events in Xinyang During 1951—2015 and Their Response to Climate Change

  • 摘要: 利用1951-2015年信阳市日最高和日最低气温资料,根据事件发生概率密度函数大于90%(或小于10%)的标,准定义了信阳市逐年的冷夜日数、暖夜日数、暖昼日数和冷昼日数.在此基础上,运用统计学方法分析了过去65年信阳市极端温度事件的变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感程度.结果表明:(1) 1951-2015年信阳市年平均气温呈显著增暖趋势,变暖速率为2.0℃/100 a;(2) 过去65年信阳市冷夜日数以4.4 d/10 a的速率呈显著减少趋势(p<0.001),暖夜日数则以8.3 d/10 a速率显著增加(p<0.001),且其增加速率大于冷夜日数减少速率;暖昼日数以1981年为界呈先减少后增加的变化趋势,1951-1981年减少趋势为-11.6 d/10 a,1982-2015年增加趋势为13.7 d/10 a;过去65年冷昼日数年际变化不明显但年代震荡强烈;(3) 信阳市极端温度事件对气候变化的响应程度呈不对称性.年均温每升高1℃,相当于冷夜日数和冷昼日数分别减少18.7 d和12.5 d,暖夜和暖昼日数分别增加26.9 d和18.3 d.在相同的气候背景下,暖夜日数对气候变化最为敏感,而冷昼日数对气候变化的敏感度最低.

     

    Abstract: The cold and warm nights, warm and cold days were defined as the respective temperature distributions exceed (or fall below) the 90th (10th) percentile of the probability density function, based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data in Xinyang during 1951-2015. Subsequently, the temporal characteristics of these extreme temperature events as well as their responsiveness to climate change were also calculated by using statistical methods. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) during the past 65 years, annual mean temperature of Xinyang shows a significantly warming trend, with the linear trend amounting to 2.0℃/100 a; (2) the cold nights indicate a significantly decreasing trend while the warm nights experience an obviously increasing trend. The linear trends were -4.4 d/10 a and 8.3 d/10 a, respectively, and both surpass 0.001 significance level. The warm days show a significantly decreasing trend first, followed which by a strongly rising trend during the past 65 years. The linear trend over the 1951-1981 period is -11.6 d/10 a, while the trend for the 1982-2015 period is 13.7 d/10 a. However, cold days during the past 65 years present no linear trends but with strongly decadal variability; (3) it is concluded that the responsiveness of temperature events to climate change is asymmetrical. The cold nights and cold days can be expected to decrease by 18.7 d and 12.5 d, while warm nights and warm days to increase by 26.9 d and 18.3 d, with annual mean temperatures increases by 1℃.

     

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