基于人粮关系的信阳市耕地资源人口承载力研究

Study on the Cultivated Land Carrying Capacity Based on Human-Grain Relationship in Xinyang City

摘要: 基于信阳市2004-2017年间耕地、人口、粮食产量等数据，运用土地资源承载力（LCC）及GM（1，1）灰色系统预测模型方法对信阳市耕地资源人口承载力进行统计预测分析.结果表明：（1）近十几年信阳市耕地资源承载力指数为0.704~0.987，总体处于粮食盈余状态.（2）信阳市在2020年、2025年和2030年三个预测年阶段的耕地资源人口承载力指数为0.739~0.744，总体处于粮食富裕状态.从人粮关系角度研究耕地资源的人口承载力状况，对保障粮食安全和区域可持续发展具有重要意义.

Abstract: The cultivated land carrying capacity of Xinyang city from 2004 to 2017 as forecast years, were evaluated and predicted by using of land resources bearing capacity (LCC) and GM(1, 1) grey system forecasting models.The results showed that:(1) From 2004 to 2017, the carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Xinyang city are mostly in the surplus state of grain. (2) The index of population carrying capacity of Xinyang city in 2020, 2025 and 2030 would reach well-off standard. The study of cultivated land carrying capacity based on human-grain relationship was great significance of the protection of food security and regional sustainable development.