Response of regional habitat quality to predicted land use change based on system coupling simulation

A framework for simulating and analyzing the impact of mult⁃scenario land use changes on regional habitat quality from a human-natural system coupling perspective was constructed. Using Hubei province as a case study， the interaction between socio-economic development， climate change， land use change， and their combined effects on habitat quality were analyzed. The findings showed that， from 2015 to 2050， the construction land in Hubei province would increase significantly. The impact of socio-economic development on land use change was more substantial than that of climate change. It is predicted that， habitat quality in Hubei province would decline by at least 5% in 2050， mainly in central and eastern regions where habitat quality was low. The effects of economic development and temperature change on habitat quality were more pronounced than those of population growth and precipitation change. The rapid growth of the economy and population was the primary driver of land use change， which significantly and negatively affected regional habitat quality. Additionally， increasing temperatures would elevate the risk of habitat degradation， while moderate precipitation increase would contribute to the enhancement of habitat quality.